I wanted to write a brief note here to pay tribute to a great trader who passed away last week, Jon Stefenson. He was one of my friends and a mentor whom I greatly admired.
I'm not speaking officially for him nor anyone else, I'm just a guy who was lucky enough to have known Jon and worked with him professionally over the years, and I wanted to share a tribute to someone whom I have looked up to for my entire career.
I first met Jon as a trainee at ECOM's office on State Street in NYC in 2010. He was one of those rare guys who seemed to be great at a lot of things. He was an athlete and an amazing golfer (regularly winning the GCA golfing outings), he was a family man and of course a greatly respected trader.
One of the things that always came up about Jon was that he was an expert in the fundamentals. In my first few years in coffee, the "fundamentals" always seemed sort of mysterious. It was like this secret knowledge that only years of study and experience and intelligence could grant you.
State Street in Lower Manhattan
Jon had all of those things.
He created a database of the global coffee supply and demand before research departments at tradehouses became ubiquitous and formalized.
I remember one time as a naive young trader, after studying technical analysis for a few weeks I confidently approached Jon and announced that I had learned technicals and wanted to learn the fundamentals. I heard that he was the "fundamentals guy" and asked him if he could teach them to me. He told me something that I would never forget. He said, "the fundamentals are a journey not a destination."
One of my coworkers laughed and said he was being melodramatic but I knew exactly what he meant. Learning the fundamentals is not like a number or a formula that you memorize. It is a commitment to understanding the truth.
In the coffee market we don't have a "truth" exactly. There is no ICO nor USDA number that everyone just agrees is the truth. We just have to commit to finding it, and every day we just try to point a little closer to it. That takes time and discipline.
Jon devoted his time to coffee and he shared his findings with the coffee community. I was always eager to see his presentations on the S&D.
A few weeks ago I gave a workshop in Basel on “advanced fundamentals” and I told the above story about Jon and his statement that the fundamentals are a journey. But I also included an additional detail.
Every month, Jon would take a special Mirado Black Warrior pencil and go into an unused conference room. We had a supply closet where anyone could go and get any office supplies that they needed. But everyone also knew that these were Jon’s special pencils, he requested them specifically (I would occasionally steal one, I mean look how cool they look!).
He would take his pencil and go into this unused conference room.
He didn’t literally hang a “do not disturb” sign on the door, but everyone knew not to disturb him. He would spend a day or two in there and reconcile every coffee origin in the world. He would talk to country managers and discuss their opinions of the numbers and the goings on in their countries. And every month he would come out a little bit sharper than before.
How could you not become an expert in something with devotion and dedication like this?
This kind of dedication and focus served Jon well over the years I’m sure. Jon had sort of a split personality. At the office, at the desk he was dedicated and focused and oblivious. If you interrupted him while he was working he would make the most hilarious face, scrunched up and mouth open, staring at you like a near-sighted man who had absolutely no idea who you were.
I remember thinking he seemed socially awkward, but I was completely wrong. He was focused. And if you engaged him in conversation he would focus on you.
The second he would call someone on the phone you would hear the comfortable and welcome voice of an old friend who was quick with a laugh and interested in what is going on.
At cocktail parties or business events he would share jokes and was an excellent conversationalist.
Jon was well-liked for his humor and quirks and well-known for being a great trader in the coffee industry. The combination of fundamental expertise, a friendly personality and excellent risk management was truly formidable. Many others like me, looked up to him.
In fact, Jon inadvertently taught me about risk management through one of his hobbies: counting cards in blackjack. Someone mentioned to me once that Jon knew how to count cards, and I was very impressed by this. I chatted with him about it and this conversation inspired me to take up card counting as well.
I studied and practiced it for several years, and it taught me a great deal about managing risk, analyzing odds and position sizing. Counting cards taught me several important lessons that I use to this day when teaching risk management.
Slide From a Presentation on "Risk Management" NCA Tampa, 2023
I also learned that counting cards is generally equivalent in payout to working a minimum wage job. Ironically, this realization led me to stop counting cards with the intention of playing in casinos. It was purely a hobby and academic exercise after that.
Much like my decision with counting cards, we have to be judicious about where we spend our time. I think this is something that Jon knew well because he was also a family man.
Jon was one of those guys who would send a long-form Christmas card that told about what he and his family had been up to over the past year along with pictures of him and his family, and you could see on his face that he was a proud husband and father.
I was never a peer of Jon’s. He had already been in the industry for 25+ years when I joined ECOM. But I always looked up to him.
It was one of my dreams for my podcast to have Jon on to talk about coffee fundamentals. Unfortunately, I put it off. I never felt like I was well-versed enough about coffee, never felt like I knew enough about the market to be able to have that conversation publicly with him.
I regret that now. I think the coffee world is poorer now for not having Jon in it, and I wish we had been able to have that podcast for all of you to get to know him and his insights too.
However, there was no secret insight to the fundamentals or trading that Jon could have left us in a podcast. As Jon said, “the fundamentals are a journey not a destination.”
Instead I think he left us something better, which was his example. The journey for Jon was one where he pursued excellence, knowledge, and truth. He did it through discipline and hard work, he did it while prioritizing his family, and he did it with integrity and humor and with a smile on his face.
Trying to master card counting, golf, coffee fundamentals, or trading ain’t easy. I certainly won’t ever be as good a golfer, card sharp or trader as Jon was, but that’s focusing on the destination.
Jon’s life was a journey. A journey where he made a powerful and positive impact on a lot of people (myself included), along the way. I think that was the point Jon was making. We can’t control the outcome. We can only try to walk on the path.
And to me, that will always be Jon’s legacy. He left us a path worth following.
Slide from "Advanced Fundamentals" presentation, SCTA Basel, October 2024
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