Brazil is the dominant force in the global coffee market, it’s responsible for nearly 40% of the world's annual coffee production. The challenge every year in coffee analysis, is understanding the crop and forecasting its size. If you understand Brazil, you understand the coffee market.
To predict this essential origin’s coffee crop, we go straight to the source, the Brazilian coffee farmer. Every year, we conduct regular surveys with several hundred Brazilian coffee farmers to collect comprehensive data on the upcoming coffee crop.
These surveys provide firsthand insights into the Brazilian coffee crop, offering granular data on production expectations, crop conditions across individual producing regions, and detailed insights on both Arabica and Robusta crops.
In this article, we provide an overview of our Brazil farmer survey report, outlining its methodology and how to interpret its findings to gain a deep understanding of Brazil’s coffee production.
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Section 1 – Key Findings
The first section of the Farmer Survey Report provides a summary of the entire report, highlighting the key findings that are explored in detail in the subsequent pages, which then include granular data, charts, and analysis supporting the conclusions in section one.
Section 1 features bullet points with the main conclusions gathered by the farmer survey, such as Brazil’s production expectations (total, Arabica and Robusta), highlights from the key Arabica and Robusta production regions (e.g.: South Minas, Espírito Santo), farmer assessment of rainfall (as a percentage of normal) and health of the new branches.
See below an example of how the section 1 looks like:
Total Brazil production (Arabica + Robusta) is estimated to be X% bigger/smaller than the previous
The survey answers point to an increase/decline in Arabica crops of A% YoY and an increase/decline in Robusta crops of R% YoY.
Farmers reported rainfall to be above/below ideal this season, at Y% of normal (avg of answers)
Section 2 – Background
Section 2 provides the specifics of the survey, such as number of respondents, area covered in both hectares and a percentage of Brazil’s planted area, survey period (dates at which farmers answered), average farm size and a chart showing the regional distribution of where farmers surveyed are located at, as well as how that compares to Brazil’s coffee allocation amongst the regions.
Section 3 – Overview of Results
Section 3 is the largest of the report. It’s divided into sub-sections and contains the granular data, analysis and charts for production expectations, rainfall assessment leading to the crop, plant health and age, farm practices and crop assessment from farmers in some of the largest Arabica and/or Robusta growing regions. This is where you get to see most of the supporting evidence behind the conclusions depicted in section one.
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Sub-Section A – General View of Production
The 1st sub-section gives a general overview of the Brazil crop in its entirety. Here, we analyze the farmers' expectations for the current crop in relation to the previous one, presented as a percentage. Farmers are asked to specify how the current crop compares to the previous on their farm and in their region (e.g., X% larger or smaller than the previous crop).
By applying a weighted average of their answers, we’re able to get an estimate of how the current crop compares to the previous one, as a percentage. The advantage of this approach is that it does not produce a fixed absolute crop figure but rather a universal percentage that different analysts can apply to their own estimates, considering they may have varying baseline figures for Brazil.
Here, we also assess the degree of variability in the responses (shown in a chart) and compare the findings to past surveys, offering a clearer understanding of whether Brazil crop conditions are consistent or highly varied. The variability of the results – by region and variety (Arabica, Robusta) - is then analyzed in the following sub-sections.
Sub-Section B – Rainfall Leading to the Crop
The 2nd sub-section focuses on analyzing the farmer’s rainfall assessment for Brazil as a whole (total Brazil crop) and for the individual regions. It features a chart showing the aggregate of farmer’s view of rainfall, as a percentage of normal.
Farmers are required to select 1 out of 7 options regarding precipitation since the last harvest:
Excellent (>= 150% of avg)
Above Average (125% to 150% of avg)
Slightly Above Average (100% to 125% of avg)
Average (normal precipitation)
Slightly Below Average (75% to 100% of avg)
Below Average (50% to 75% of avg)
Terrible (<= 50% of avg)
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Analyzing the answers by growing regions allows for an insight into how weather has (either positively or negatively) affected the crops. It also enables us to analyze rainfall by Arabica & Robusta regions and cross the data against production expectations for each variety.
Sub-Section C – Branches – Health & Growth
Farmers are also asked to provide an opinion on the branches that will form the next crop, in terms of health and growth. They’re offered 7 options of answers, ranging from “terrible” to “great”. We normalize their answers on a 1 to 5 scale, using 3 as benchmark for normal health and growth.
This allows us to rate how the new branches score across the individual growing regions. In this sub-section, we analyze the findings, drawing conclusions and shading light into which regions have the best and/or worse ratings and how the preliminary view of the next Brazil crop generally looks like.
Sub-Section D – Plant Age
Each farmer is required to provide the average age of their crops and in this section, we analyze the age of the plants composing the crops surveyed, specifically by region and variety. This is especially important to understand if age (whether crops are too young or old) is a primary factor in determining crop potential via our sample.
Sub-Section E & F – Individual Regions
Brazil's coffee production is heavily concentrated in a few key regions. Minas Gerais dominates Arabica output, with South Minas alone contributing nearly 35% of the country's total. For Robusta, Espírito Santo is the leader, producing almost 70% of Brazil’s crop.
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As a result, these regions play a major role in shaping crop prospects for their respective varieties. We typically use sub-sections E & F to illustrate and analyze crop conditions in these areas whenever the survey captures any noteworthy details. These sub-sections feature the number of respondents by region, the consensus from their answers (+/- X% YoY), as well as charts and data supporting the analysis.
Sub-Section G – Farm Practices
Farmers are asked to report their annual fertilizer usage (in kg per hectare) and the percentage of their crops that have undergone skeleton pruning since the last harvest. Like the “Plant age” question, the “Farm Practices” question helps us assess whether husbandry quality (good or poor) significantly impacts results, whether our sample includes outliers in either extreme, and how farm practices vary across the surveyed group. In sub-section G, these results are presented (charts), discussed and analyzed.
Section 4 – Scope and Limitations
As part of our commitment to transparency with our clients, we also offer an overview of potential limitations that could affect our survey results. It may include reflections on whether our sample accurately captures regional diversity, if there were any missing questions, and/if certain questions could have been better phrased that may have caused respondent misinterpretation.
We encourage our clients to form their own conclusions based on our data and analysis, and so we believe that highlighting potential weaknesses in our survey helps them interpret the results more effectively.
Section 5 – Charts, Data & Tables
Section 5 is an appendix containing the graphic references for all the charts and tables used throughout the report. It also includes all other charts extracted from the survey that may not have been analyzed within the report but could be of interest to the reader for individual analysis.
Methodology
The farmer surveys generally take place in periods deemed appropriate by seasoned agronomists to evaluate crop conditions. We conduct one survey before the harvest and another during the harvest to reassess crop conditions and evaluate whether they have met expectations.
The surveyed area ranges from 0.6% (min) to 1.4% (max) of Brazil’s total planted area, according to Conab’s data. Its distribution has shown a strong correlation with the regional allocation of coffee-growing areas across the country, effectively reflecting the regional composition of Brazil’s coffee production.
Considering that the samples surveyed are random and properly representative of the different geographical producing regions in Brazil, the survey can provide a valuable and directionally accurate estimate of Brazil’s total coffee production.
The farmers interviewed (815 in the last survey, conducted Feb 25th to 27th) receive a survey form with several questions that include their farm’s location, volume expected to harvest, farm size, plant age, weather assessment, health of the plants and husbandry.
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The collected data is analyzed to draw conclusions on Brazil’s crop. We use the data to identify the relationships between variables (e.g., weather assessment, plant age & harvest expectations), and determine the consensus among Brazilian farmers for specific producing regions and separately for Arabica and Robusta crops.
The results collected from the farmer surveys are then used to feed our S&D report, with data on Brazil’s total crop, as well as Brazil’s Arabica and Robusta crops, individually. As fundamentals analysts, this serves as a primary source of information to the market research we provide for our clients.
Conclusions
The Brazilian farmer survey serves as a both a forecast of crop size and analysis of the state of the crop, compiled from trusted sources such as farmers and agronomists. Its goal is not only to forecast the Brazilian crop but also to break down the forecast by regions and varieties, while highlighting the factors influencing the results.
Ultimately, it provides a comprehensive understanding of the Brazilian crop, covering factors such as age, farmer investment, weather conditions, crop size, and regional variability. With each survey, we gather more data, allowing us to refine our analysis over the years, building a valuable backlog of Brazil data from past surveys.
It is our belief that comprehensive analysis is best paired with valuable (and proprietary) first-hand data. For this reason, this report is one of the most valuable products that we offer to our clients. If you would like a free trial to become a client, or would like to buy the report outright please contact us at info@coffeetradingacademy.com.
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