Coffee Is Unimpressed
The risk of great expectations is great disappointments. Initial assessments are that the much ballyhooed 2nd (technically 3rd) frost of...
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Ryan Delany
Jul 29, 20212 min read
1994 Frost Risk
When the market rallied 26c in a day following the 7/20 Frost I casually remarked that I would have to look at the pre-2000s data to find...
507 views1 comment
Ryan Delany
Jul 28, 20212 min read
Staying Ahead of the Market
It is a terrible feeling to wake up one morning and see that your position has gone against you. Many #exporters and #tradehouses have...
370 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 27, 20213 min read
Volatility and Inversion in the Calendar Spreads
The #Arabica #coffeemarket was inverted by 5 bps in N22/U22 as of 7:18am. This is VERY unusual. I'm not trying to be alarmist here, I...
676 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 26, 20214 min read
Margin Requirements and Frost #3: What to Expect
Today, the #coffeemarket (#Arabica) rallied +26c at the highs today to 215.20 in September based on #margin increases and renewed #Frost...
658 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 22, 20214 min read
Bad to Worse: Frost Update 7/22/2021
In my post from a few days ago, I said that the extent of the damage was not yet known. In the two days since then, the situation has...
710 views2 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 20, 20212 min read
New Coffee Trader's Courses in Your TimeZone!
Building on the success of our last Coffee Trader's Course, we will be offering this comprehensive and dynamic online course this...
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Ryan Delany
Jul 20, 20213 min read
Worst-Case Coffee Frost in Brazil
Last night frost was reported in Sul de Minas, the largest production area in Brazil. The extent of damage is not yet known, but the...
961 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 13, 20212 min read
The Pied Piper of Coffee
Back in October 2020, the Pied Piper of the Brazil drought led away all of the bearish Rats from the #CoffeeMarket, and now he has...
186 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 9, 20214 min read
Squeeze in Robusta Spills into Arabica
(Edit: An earlier version of this article erroneously quoted the MiFiD position limits rather than the ICE Eur Delivery Limits. This has...
484 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 8, 20213 min read
FOMC Might be Bullish Coffee
I read the Federal Reserve minutes so you don't have to! Steady as she goes from the #FederalReserve. This may disappoint #USD bulls who...
70 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 7, 20212 min read
Technicals Look Weak in Coffee
Coffee had a bad week last week in terms of price action. The frost scare caused a run up in prices and short term spec interest and...
157 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jul 2, 20212 min read
Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact: Coffee Frost Risk in 2021
"Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact" is a favorite phrase in the coffee community, and it is one that we hear every year around this time of...
169 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 28, 20212 min read
What's in a Frost?
The #weather forecast is showing #frost in one of the largest producing areas in #Brazil by Jul 1st, if this materializes then we could...
207 views1 comment
Ryan Delany
Jun 24, 20212 min read
GCA Stocks vs KC Stocks Which Determines Price?
We have a fundamental disconnect between #CertStocks which are approaching the 5 year highs and #GCAstocks which are flirting with their...
269 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 22, 20211 min read
Congratulations to the Inaugural Coffee Trader's Course Class!
A huge CONGRATULATIONS and THANK YOU to the inaugural class of the Coffee Trader's Course at the Coffee Trading Academy. Although I have...
45 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 21, 20211 min read
Tis the Silly Season
We have now officially entered the #SillySeason as we prepare for potential #Frosts in #Brazil. According to my #Seasonality report, this...
30 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 20, 20213 min read
The Doomsday and Mini-Doomsday Inflation Scenarios
The #FederalReserve's #FOMC met this past week, and the results are relevant to us in the #coffeemarket, and indeed all of the...
172 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 10, 20212 min read
The Truth about Inflation and Coffee
The #CPI numbers came out and they were high, even higher than expected. The numbers for May were an increase of 0.6% which was 50%...
234 views0 comments
Ryan Delany
Jun 9, 20212 min read
Who's the Smart Money Here?
The #coffeemarket has been consolidating for the last two weeks after its rapid rise up since the beginning of April. The question now...
125 views0 comments
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